Modelling the Future: Groundwater Responses to Climate Change in Talomo-Lipadas Watershed, Davao City, Philippines

Abstract

This research focuses on the impact of changing climate on ground water recharge (seepage) of Talomo-Lipadas Watershed, Davao City Philippines for the next 100 years. Statistical Downscaling Method (SDSM) was employed to generate station-scale climate scenarios for the in three-time slice periods, specifically centered on 2020 (2011–2040), 2050 (2041-2070), and 2080 (2071-2100). While, Brook 90 hydrological model was  employed to simulate the recharge water in the next 100 years, as well. Results revealed that Talomo-Lipadas Watershed station climate scenario will likely experience an increase of temperature.  Brook 90 hydrological modelling revealed decreasing groundwater supply of 109.01, 103.53, and 99.81 million cubic meter (MCM) for time slice periods of 2020, 2050, and 2080, respectively. Urgent adaptation strategies should be adapted to cope with the impact of climate to water recharge or consider other alternative sources. It is also suggested to use other computer and simulation modelling methods for the validation of the result.