Sustainable Development of Maritime Transport Towards Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Through a Feasible Fuel Transition Roadmap

Abstract

With the International Maritime Organization (IMO) Strategy 2023 to reduce ship emissions to zero by 2050, ship owners or/and operators are looking for effective economic solutions to meet the latest emission requirements. The initial cost of changeover and using new fuels can be too high, which is a big barrier for Vietnamese shipowners. Therefore, this paper proposes a comprehensive fuel transition roadmap for Vietnam's maritime industry using the PLEETS multi-criteria decision analysis framework (Political, Legal, Economic, Environmental, Technological, and Social). Through quantitative analysis of Vietnamese fleet data, assessment of major port infrastructure, surveys of 127 vessels, and economic-technical modeling, seven alternative fuels are considered: compliant fuels, LNG, methanol, ammonia, shore power, ethanol, and hydrogen. The analysis results indicate an optimal transition strategy comprising three phases: The immediate phase (2025-2030) focuses on building a basic foundation, such as deploying onshore power generation and providing and using appropriate fuels, to achieve a 15-20% emission reduction target with an estimated investment of US$0.8-1.0 billion. The intermediate phase (2031-2040) involves using methanol and bio-LNG, aiming for a 40-50% reduction with an estimated investment of US$1.8-2.2 billion. The final phase (2041-2050) will utilize green ammonia and e-methanol, aiming for net-zero emissions with an investment of approximately US$2.8-3.4 billion. This roadmap is based on evidence supporting Vietnamese policymakers, shipowners, operators, and port authorities, and contributes methodologically through the first-ever rigorous application of the PLEETS multi-criteria decision analysis framework integrated into a marine fuel transition strategy in a developing nation context.