Mapping the Evolution of Urban Sprawl Research: A PRISMA-2 Based Systematic and Bibliometric Synthesis

Abstract

Urban sprawl represents a major spatial manifestation of contemporary urbanization, reshaping land 7 systems, ecological stability, and sustainability trajectories. This study presents a PRISMA-based systematic review 8 combined with bibliometric and thematic synthesis to examine global urban sprawl research. Following structured 9 screening of 183 records, 54 peer-reviewed journal articles were retained for detailed analysis. Bibliometric map-10 ping using VOSviewer, quantitative comparison, and thematic synthesis were integrated to assess methodological 11 evolution, geographic concentration, and sustainability integration. The findings reveal three developmental phases: 12 an early exploratory stage, a consolidation phase dominated by spatial modeling, and a recent shift toward environ-13 mental and climate-related assessment. Methodologically, Cellular Automata and CA–Markov models account for 14 40.74% of studies, followed by remote sensing change detection (25.93%), while spatial regression approaches 15 remain limited (3.70%). Urban expansion magnitudes show substantial heterogeneity, with a mean built-up growth 16 of 119.7% and a strongly right-skewed distribution (Sk = 1.97; K = 2.38). Reported growth ranges from below 20% 17 to over 500%, frequently associated with agricultural land conversion and land surface temperature intensification. 18 Classification accuracies typically range from 83% to 91%, indicating high technical reliability. Research output is 19 geographically concentrated in Asia (61.11%), particularly in China and India, while governance-oriented scholar-20 ship remains comparatively underrepresented. Overlay analysis indicates an emerging focus on climate change and 21 ecosystem impacts, yet institutional evaluation remains peripheral. Overall, the field demonstrates strong technical 22 maturity but limited integration of policy assessment, underscoring the need for cross-scale causal modeling and 23 standardized sustainability metrics.