Comparative Assessment of Empirical and Theoretical Mass Eruption Rate Estimation Methods Using HYSPLIT: A Case Study of Lewotobi Laki-Laki Eruption

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.46488/

Keywords:

dispersion, Simulation, Modelling, mass eruption rate, volcanic ash, eruption

Abstract

Volcanic eruptions that release fine particles into the atmosphere have a significant impact on biophysical systems and socio-economic conditions on the Earth's surface. Various eruption events have provided valuable lessons regarding appropriate mitigation strategies, both in post-eruption management and in early warning systems. The application of modeling simulations for early warnings has proven to provide great benefits by enabling more accurate predictions of volcanic ash dispersion. The Mass Eruption Rate (MER) parameter plays an important role in determining the accuracy of volcanic ash dispersion simulations, by comparing six MER estimation methods through a comparative test to identify the approach most consistent with field conditions. The comparative test with HYSPLIT software in two scenarios shows that the ash dispersion direction is consistent with Sentinel-5P and MODIS imagery. However, in the first scenario, the concentration estimates from all six MER methods deviate significantly from the validation results, whereas in the second scenario, the MER5 method produces a value that most closely approximates the CAMS EAC4 validation data. The difference between the ash concentration simulation results and the validation data can be caused by several main factors, particularly the eruption column height and the choice of Mass Eruption Rate (MER) estimation method. Variations in these two parameters have the potential to produce significant deviations in the dispersion model, thus affecting the accuracy of volcanic ash dispersion predictions.

Author Biographies

  • Yumita Sufitri, Andalas University

    Yumita Sufitri received her Master’s degree in Environmental Engineering, focusing on air quality modeling. Her research interests include atmospheric pollutant dispersion, air quality assessment, and environmental impact mitigation. She is currently pursuing a Doctoral degree in Environmental Engineering, continuing her work on the development and implementation of air dispersion modeling systems for sustainable environmental management.

  • Vera Surtia Bachtiar, Andalas University

    Prof. Ir. Vera Surtia Bachtiar, Ph.D., is a Professor in the Department of Environmental Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Universitas Andalas. Her expertise includes air quality management, air pollution modeling, and health risk assessment related to air pollution. Her research focuses on pollutant dispersion modeling from volcanic, transportation, and industrial activities, and air pollution mitigation through technology and policy approaches.

  • Taufiq Ihsan, Andalas University

    Dr. Taufiq Ihsan is a permanent lecturer in the Department of Environmental Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Universitas Andalas. His areas of expertise include Environmental Health and Management, Occupational Health and Safety (OHS), and Water, Sanitation, and Hygiene (WaSH) within disaster contexts.

  • Sugeng Nugroho, Global Atmosphere Watch Station Kototabang, West Sumatra, Indonesia

    Sugeng Nugroho is a researcher at the Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW) Bukit Kototabang Station, Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG), Indonesia. He has published extensively in the fields of meteorology, climatology, climate change, hydroclimatology, and air quality. His research focuses on monitoring and analyzing tropical atmospheric dynamics, regional climate variability, and air pollution characteristics across Southeast Asia.

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Issue

September 2026 (Forthcoming Issue)

Section

Articles