Analysis of the Effect of Sustainable Groundwater Resource Management on Groundwater Basin Function in Probolinggo Regency

Abstract

Groundwater, as a vital resource, faces a crisis in Probolinggo Regency due to rapid industrialization and land conversion that threaten the Groundwater Basin Function. This study aims to quantitatively identify the dominant factors among six aspects of sustainable groundwater resource management and quantify causal effects, both positive and negative, on the Groundwater Basin Function. Using a quantitative approach with an explanatory survey design, the analysis was conducted using PLS-SEM, involving data from key stakeholders. The main results show that the model has a very high predictive power (B= 0.925). Crucial and contrasting findings were dominated by two factors: Utilization (X6) had the strongest significant positive influence (B=0.57; P=0.004), driven by Technological Innovation; conversely, Implementation (X2) showed a significant negative influence (B=−0.54; P=0.049). This negative coefficient confirms the existence of a critical "Implementation Gap," where weaknesses in Human Resources and Budget Support actually hinder Groundwater Basin Function. In conclusion, the biggest challenge in sustainable groundwater management lies in the failure to execute policies, not in planning. Policy implications urge local governments to prioritize investment in Utilization Technology Innovation (X6) and immediately carry out structural reforms and budget audits in the Implementation phase (X2) to achieve Groundwater Basin sustainability.