Perception–Participation Dynamics and Mangrove Degradation: A Multi-Group SEM in Northern Central Java, Indonesia

Abstract

Background: Mangrove ecosystems in northern Central Java are rapidly degrading due to ecological stress, land-use conversion, and weak institutional support. Objective: This study examines how community perception influences participation and how both factors affect mangrove degradation in Brebes, Pemalang, and Demak. Structural Equation Modelling (SEM) and Multi-Group SEM (MG-SEM) were applied to identify site-specific causal pathways for adaptive management.
Methods: A mixed-methods design combined a household survey of 150 respondents (50 per district) with focus group discussions. Indicators were validated using Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA) and tested through robust maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) with 2,000 bootstraps. MG-SEM was employed to compare pathways across the three sites. Results: Perception significantly enhanced participation (β = 0.58, p < 0.001) and directly reduced degradation (β = –0.21, p = 0.010). Participation also negatively influenced degradation (β = –0.32, p < 0.001) and partially mediated the perception–degradation relationship (β = –0.19, p < 0.001). The model explained 34% of the variance in participation and 26% in degradation (R² = 0.34; 0.26) with good overall fit (χ²/df = 1.87; CFI = 0.93; TLI = 0.91; RMSEA = 0.056; SRMR = 0.045). Conclusion: Community perception and participation are pivotal yet context-dependent drivers of mangrove resilience. Adaptive strategies should prioritize ecological literacy and institutional support in Brebes, participatory incentives in Pemalang, and engineering-based interventions in Demak.