Do climate variables influence fish production in top fishery economies? Evidence from the ARDL Approach

Abstract

Climate change poses significant challenges to food security worldwide, particularly within the fisheries sector, where fish production is highly sensitive to climatic variables. This study investigates the long-run and short-run impacts of climate change on fish production in four major fish-producing countries, China, India, Vietnam, and Bangladesh, using annual time series data from 1990 to 2020. Here, an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model was employed to explore the long-run equilibrium relationships between climate factors (precipitation, minimum, mean, and maximum temperatures, CO₂ emissions) and total fish production, as well as their adjustments to short-run deviations. The findings reveal distinct patterns across countries: CO₂ emissions positively influence long-term fish production in China, India, and Bangladesh, while precipitation boosts fish production in China and Bangladesh. In contrast, Vietnam shows no long-run equilibrium, indicating a higher sensitivity to short-term climatic fluctuations. In the short run, CO₂ emissions significantly enhance fish production in Bangladesh, with regional temperature effects varying. Minimum temperature positively impacts long-term fish production in China but negatively affects it in Bangladesh. In Vietnam, increased maximum temperature enhance short-run production, while minimum temperature reduces it. This study examines the critical role of CO₂ emissions, precipitation, and temperature in influencing fish production, offering key insights for policymakers to develop adaptive strategies for sustainable fish production amid climate change.