DIVERGENT ENERGY PATHS - A TREND ANALYSIS OF GLOBAL ENERGY GROWTH ACROSS ECONOMIC CLASSIFICATIONS

Abstract

This study examines global energy growth trends from 1990 to 2022, utilizing secondary data from sources like the IEA, World Bank, and the United Nations. The analysis focuses on indicators such as total energy consumption, fossil fuel and renewable energy consumption, energy intensity, and carbon emissions. The study employs various econometric techniques, including stationarity testing using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test to examine the time series data for unit roots. A semi-logarithmic trend model is used to estimate the long-run trends of energy indicators, and a Kinked Exponential Growth Model is applied to capture variations in growth across different sub-periods, accounting for potential structural breaks. The data was tested for stationarity using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test, showing a non-stationary process at the level but stationary at the first difference (1(1) process). The Semi-Logarithmic trend model revealed significant differences in growth rates across economic classifications. For Developed countries, Japan (5.05%) and the United States (5.5%) had high growth rates, while New Zealand and the UK showed negative growth. In Developing countries, China (6.7%), India (5.8%), and South Africa (4.7%) showed strong growth, whereas Nigeria (2.3%) and Pakistan (3.5%) had lower rates. The Discontinuous Growth analysis revealed steady positive growth for most countries, while Denmark and Finland experienced minimal or negative growth in certain periods.